The aftermath of the 2024 elections sparked deep discussions and debates on Elon University’s campus as political science faculty analyzed key takeaways and their potential implications on state and national politics. The event, titled “After the Vote,” brought together students, faculty, and members of the campus community on Nov. 12 to reflect on a historic and contentious election cycle.
Moderated by Carrie Eaves, associate professor and chair of the Department of Political Science and Public Policy, the discussion was held in East Neighborhood Commons and featured a panel of five faculty experts. Together, they dissected global political trends, scrutinized the accuracy of national polling, and offered predictions for President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration.
Trump’s Victory: Economy and Inflation Take Center Stage
Central to the panel’s analysis was the decisive Republican victory, fueled by voters’ concerns over the economy and inflation. Panelists agreed that these issues significantly influenced the electorate, ultimately leading to Trump’s win over Democratic nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris.
Jason Husser, professor of political science, director of the Elon Poll, and assistant provost for academic excellence and integrity, explained how polling data had accurately forecasted the outcome.
“Polls were showing very likely signs that Trump was going to win,” Husser said. “This was a historically accurate cycle for polls, with an average error in swing states of 1.9%, well within the standard margin of error.”
Despite improvements in polling methods since 2016, Husser acknowledged ongoing challenges in capturing the views of Trump supporters, a demographic that remains elusive for many pollsters.
A Global Perspective: Backlash Against Incumbents
Safia Swimelar, professor of political science, contextualized the U.S. election within a broader global trend. She noted that ruling parties across advanced economies have faced significant backlash since the pandemic, citing examples from countries like Great Britain, South Korea, Argentina, India, and Germany.
“In almost every developed country, the incumbent party in power — whether on the right or left — has lost control or faced significant losses,” Swimelar said.
This international trend, she suggested, reflects widespread dissatisfaction with governing parties and long-standing economic policies.
Harris’s Challenges and the Democratic Struggles
Vice President Kamala Harris’s brief candidacy and the Democratic Party’s challenges in the 2024 race were also hot topics. The panel highlighted several hurdles, including President Joe Biden’s late exit from the race and the lack of a traditional primary process, which left Harris with just 110 days to campaign.
Jessica Carew, associate professor of political science and public policy, questioned the role of racial and gender biases in shaping voter turnout.
“We can’t ignore the ways biases may have influenced perceptions of Harris’s leadership and ability to mobilize voters,” Carew said.
Panelists were unsurprised by the Republican flip of the U.S. Senate and pointed to structural challenges Democrats faced, particularly in defending seats in traditionally red states. They also noted the common trend of voters in states like North Carolina splitting their ballots between parties, electing a Democratic governor while favoring Republicans in the presidential race.
Redefining Party Identities
Dillan Bono-Lunn, assistant professor of political science and public policy, suggested that the 2024 election cycle resembled the dynamics of 2016 more than 2020.
“Maybe 2020 was an outlier,” Bono-Lunn said. “We’re seeing a review of the status quo of neoliberalism. There’s widespread discontent with 30 to 50 years of economic policy, and this election reflects that.”
This discontent, he explained, is reshaping the identities of both major political parties, potentially signaling a long-term shift in their platforms and strategies.
North Carolina’s Political Landscape: A Mixed Bag
In North Carolina, panelists highlighted notable Democratic victories, including the governorship and lieutenant governorship, as well as weakened Republican dominance in the General Assembly. Husser noted that the GOP’s supermajority in the state legislature is set to expire, raising questions about what legislative actions they might prioritize in the coming weeks.
The state’s electoral outcomes mirrored broader national trends, underscoring the complexity of voter preferences and the nuanced political dynamics in battleground states.
Predictions for Trump’s Second Term
Looking ahead, the panelists outlined potential policy moves under Trump’s second term, painting a picture of significant domestic and international changes.
Swimelar predicted increases in deportations and tariffs, which could heighten international tensions and exacerbate inflation. Husser forecasted sweeping deregulation efforts, particularly in environmental and consumer safety sectors, along with a move away from federalized education policies.
Bono-Lunn pointed to Trump’s early cabinet picks, noting a trend toward neoconservative appointees reminiscent of his 2016 administration. Carew voiced concerns about potential cuts to Medicaid and the replacement of non-partisan civil servants with political appointees, which could undermine the federal government’s expertise and stability.
Engaging Beyond the Ballot Box
The event concluded with a call to action for students and the broader community to stay politically engaged beyond election season. Carew emphasized the importance of sustained involvement in the democratic process.
“We should all be paying attention, no matter the outcome of the election,” she said. “The election should be the beginning of your engagement, not the endpoint.”
A Thought-Provoking Dialogue
Sponsored by Elon University’s Department of Political Science and Public Policy and the Phoenix Policy Institute, the discussion provided students with a unique opportunity to engage directly with experts and deepen their understanding of the complex forces shaping the political landscape.
As the nation braces for a new chapter under Trump’s leadership, the insights shared during “After the Vote” offered valuable context and underscored the importance of informed civic participation. For those in attendance, the event was not just a recap of the 2024 elections but a reminder of the power and responsibility that comes with staying informed and involved in the democratic process.
